Army vs. Navy 2024 Game Prediction: Who Wins and Why?

College football’s most prominent rivalry begins Saturday when the 2024 Army vs. Navy Game kicks off for the 125th time. Here’s what you should be watching for in the match, with On SI providing our updated match prediction.

Ohio State vs. Michigan, Alabama vs. Auburn and all the others are great series in their own right, but this is the only college football rivalry where every player on the field is willing to lay down their lives for everyone watching and in the stadium. .

The spectacle and tradition of the Army-Navy game is unmatched in college football, or indeed any other American sport, and in recent years, it’s also one of the closest rivalry games: eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided by a possession. .

What can we expect when the Black Knights and Midshipmen meet on the same field today?

Here’s what to watch for when Army and Navy meet in this college football classic, with our updated prediction for the 2024 game.

1. On the ground. It’s no secret that Army’s offense runs through its turf, ranking No. 1 nationally in rushing over 300 yards per game, with quarterback Bryson Daily leading the way with 1,480 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. tied with Ashton Jeanty for the most in the NCAA. .

Navy’s run defense has been a weakness this season, ranking 85th out of 134 FBS teams against opposing quarterbacks and surrendering over 200 rushing yards in two of its three losses and allowing 4.31 yards per carry carry all season, averaging over 159 yards per game. .

2. Third down. Army enters the game ranked fourth nationally in third-down success rate, converting over 50 percent of its opportunities, driven by Daily’s ability to produce short yard runs that help this offense control tempo and punish the defense.

Navy is allowing opponents to convert just over 40 percent of their third-down chances, allowing teams to move the chains in 63 of 156 opportunities, ranking 82nd nationally in that category.

3. The Navy can throw it away. While the Midshipmen aren’t as prolific as Army running the football and therefore don’t control the clock as well, they can run the ball better with Blake Horvath working under center.

Horvath has proven capable of hitting the occasional deep play in the vertical game, leading the offense to over 200 passing yards in two appearances, an important dynamic that helps balance things out alongside Navy’s eighth-ranked rushing attack.

Army allows nearly 65 percent completion from opposing passers, but is a respectable 34th in the FBS in pass defense, allowing just 14 touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes.

Army is a 6.5-point favorite against Navy, according to updated game lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for this historic matchup.

FanDuel pegged the total at 39.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And they list the money line odds for Army at -220 and Navy at +180 to win outright.

While it may be a cliché to say that you can “throw records” in rivalry games like this, the truth is that you can. These teams switch to a different gear mentally and physically when they play each other.

Navy has fallen off the radar a bit after getting stumped by Notre Dame in a loss that ended its perfect record, but it’s worth remembering that this team can still pack a punch.

And when combined with the Midshipmen’s more developed passing acumen than in years past, that could pose a bigger challenge for the Black Knights’ defense, opening up some throwing lanes to exploit that move the chains and overcome the run stop of the army expert.

A challenge that Navy’s defense needn’t worry about given Army’s limited passing threat.

But the Knights still have a tremendous advantage when running the ball against a Navy defense that has been a vulnerability against more talented opponents. And this is the nation’s best.

For the betting-inclined: It’s worth noting that the total in this game has gone under the number every time in the past decade. It will be again.

College Headquarters Football Select…

More… Army vs Navy Score Prediction by Football Model

When: Saturday, Dec. 14
Where: Landover, Md.

Time: 3:00 PM Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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