Can I do CFP?

There were two ideal results for Alabama when it came to the ACC Championship Game. 1. An SMU win. 2. A Clemson win in a blast. SMU winning would limit the bid stealers. Clemson’s blowout would diminish SMU’s standing enough to warrant Alabama’s spot in the College Football Playoff.

For three quarters, it looked like option no. 2 will be realized. The Tigers jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the first half and led the Mustangs 31-14 heading into the fourth quarter. Then all hell broke loose as SMU came back to tie the game at 31 with 16 seconds left.

An SMU win would be a good result for Alabama, so a comeback wasn’t really an issue. The Mustangs lost by a last-second field goal despite the comeback.

In the worst of both worlds, Clemson stole a bid as ACC champion and SMU showed enough grit to warrant a spot in the CFP despite their loss.

The question is whether or not the committee appreciates SMU’s return.

As it stands, Oregon is likely the No. 1 seed, with Georgia moving up to No. 2 as the SEC champion. Then Arizona State, Boise State and Clemson will receive the other automatic bids.

At-large offers are essentially locked in for Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee. That leaves only two spots open. We expect Indiana to keep one of them. The debate between SMU and Alabama is more difficult to resolve.

Alabama’s CFP hopes now rely on the selection committee dropping SMU behind them. That would mean punishing the Mustangs for a loss in an extra game, something president Warde Manuel has indicated they don’t want to do.

At the same time, SMU looked outclassed by Clemson for most of the game. If the committee bases its rankings on the ceiling of either of those teams, the Crimson Tide will go in. It’s just not guaranteed that’s how they’ll make up their mind.

Waiting for the CFP rankings could have been a relatively stress-free experience for Kalen DeBoer and his team. But the result of the ACC title game did anything but.